When you vet a new project, the loudest question is simple: is the reward worth the risk? If you answer it with a single forecast, “we’ll hit $5M in year two”, you’re betting your credibility on a point estimate that’s almost guaranteed to be wrong. Probabilistic thinking replaces fragile certainties with ranges, distributions, and odds. … Continue reading Risk Vs. Reward: Evaluating New Projects Using Probabilistic Thinking